In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has widened her lead over former President Donald Trump, showing a significant shift in voter enthusiasm as the November 5th election approaches. Harris now leads Trump by 45% to 41% among registered voters, a 4-point advantage that has grown from just 1 point in late July.
Harris Gains Support Among Key Voter Groups
The poll, conducted over an eight-day period ending Wednesday with a 2 percentage point margin of error, highlights Harris’s increasing support among women and Hispanic voters. Harris now leads Trump by a substantial 49% to 36% margin among both of these critical demographics. This represents a notable increase from July, when she held a 9-point lead among women and a 6-point lead among Hispanic voters.
While Trump maintains his lead among white voters and men, his advantage among voters without a college degree has narrowed significantly, from 14 points in July to just 7 points in the latest survey.
Shifts in the Presidential Race
The poll’s findings underscore the dramatic changes in the U.S. presidential race over the summer. Following a widely criticized debate performance, President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign on July 21, paving the way for Harris to take the lead as the Democratic candidate. Since then, Harris has gained momentum in both national polls and crucial swing state surveys.
However, the state-by-state results of the Electoral College will ultimately determine the election’s outcome. In the seven key battleground states where the 2020 election was closest, Trump holds a narrow 45% to 43% lead over Harris.
Rising Enthusiasm Among Democratic Voters
Harris’s entry into the race has sparked new enthusiasm among Democratic voters. According to the poll, 73% of registered Democrats feel more excited about voting in November with Harris as the candidate. This is a marked change from a March poll where 61% of Biden supporters said they were primarily voting to stop Trump. In contrast, 52% of Harris voters in the August poll are motivated by supporting her candidacy rather than just opposing Trump.
Aimee Allison, founder of She the People, noted that the poll reflects a shift in voter motivation. “They see Kamala Harris as the future,” Allison said, emphasizing that voters are more engaged when offered a positive vision rather than just opposition to Trump.
Voter Preferences on Key Issues
The poll also revealed voter preferences on key issues. Trump leads Harris on economic management, with 45% of voters favoring his approach compared to 36% for Harris. However, Harris holds a significant 47% to 31% advantage on abortion policy, an issue that remains highly relevant following the 2022 Supreme Court decision to overturn the national right to abortion.
Concerns about a potential national abortion ban are prominent, with 41% of voters—and 70% of Democrats—expressing worry that the next president might sign such legislation.
Looking Ahead
The poll’s results partially overlap with the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Harris formally accepted her party’s nomination. It remains to be seen whether the heightened enthusiasm for Harris will continue as the election draws closer.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,253 U.S. adults, including 3,562 registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign on August 23, received the support of 6% of voters during the survey.